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What has been observed?

Since 1950, South Australia has been warmer, some southern coastal areas are drier and the State’s northern half has experienced increasing rainfall.

Future Climate Scenarios (or what climate models tell us)

The 2003 CSIRO report, Climate Change in South Australia, and the updated report (2006), provides a basis for understanding potential implications of climate change.

Climate conditions for South Australia and its regions were projected for 2030 and 2070 using future emissions scenarios prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These projections include:

• increase in annual average temperatures (1 - 6° C warmer in the north of the state and 0.6 - 4.4° C in the south, by 2070)

• average annual rainfalls tending toward decreases (projections in the range +20 to –40% by 2070) particularly in agricultural regions of the State

• reduction in winter and spring rain

• increase in frequency of extreme maximum temperatures, while the frequency of extreme minimum temperatures decreases

• increase, by up to 10%, in extreme rainfall events (with heavy rainfall in summer in the north of the state projected to result in a 20% increase in flood frequency)

• increase in the frequency of droughts towards the end of the century.

About the Projections

Those responsible for preparing climate change projections insist that they are not predictions. They indicate a range of potential responses of the climate system to plausible scenarios involving future emissions. The scenarios take into account many factors including economic trends, concentrations of greenhouse gases and their warming effects, and cooling effects of other pollutants like aerosols. Scientific confidence in climate models has increased. However, confidence levels vary for different aspects of climate projections. For example, we can be more certain about projected temperatures than rainfall projections.

Temperature

All models assessed by CSIRO show warming across the State. The frequency of extreme maximum temperatures is projected to increase while the frequency of extreme minimum temperatures is projected to decrease. Hot spells (3 or more days) above 35°C and 40°C are projected to increase across the entire State with the exception of the South East and Kangaroo Island. By 2070, the number of days above 35°C in Adelaide could increase from 14 to 17–38, and above 40°C from 1 to 2–11.

The projected increase in minimum daily temperatures would reduce demand for heating and reduce cold stress for animals and humans. A reduction in frost days may affect the viability of certain crops (stone fruits and cool climate cultivars of grapes). Increased frequency of high temperatures could increase bushfire risk, human mortality, stress to animals and crops, and energy demand for airconditioning. The State’s ageing population will be more vulnerable to heat stress.

Rainfall and evaporation

Agriculture, natural ecosystems and water resources have the potential to be significantly affected if rainfall declines. While the models do not produce consistent results, only in the northern regions are increases in annual rainfall generally indicated. In southern agricultural regions, annual rainfall is projected to decrease by up to 8% or 9% in 2030 and up to 25 or 30% in 2070. Spring shows the strongest rainfall decreases. Across the southern agricultural regions, spring rainfall decreases of up to 20% by 2030 and 60% by 2070 are indicated. Increased evaporation is projected and this will also increase water stress. The prospect of drier climate throughout the Murray-Darling basin reducing flows in the River Murray has profound implications.

Flooding

Heavy rainfall events (despite drier average conditions) could result in increased flood risks.

Coasts

The vulnerability of coastal areas will be increased by rising global sea-levels, and possibly storms of greater intensity.

What does it mean for South Australians?

As the nation's driest state, South Australia is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Drier and warmer conditions would directly affect our lifestyle, biodiversity and specific sectors like primary production and water supply. Many climate change impacts are likely to be negative though enhanced yield of some crops may occur due to the increased carbon dioxide in the air. Threats include more intense heat waves, floods and bushfires and an increased potential for infectious disease. Infrastructure and coastal communities will require greater protection from the sea. These are just some of the complex issues facing us.

Globally, climate change has potentially devastating implications. For more on potential global impacts click here. South Australia will experience not only direct effects of climate change, but will also be significantly affected by how the rest of the world fares and the worldwide response.

Links

CSIRO Report - Climate Change in South Australia - 2003 (PDF 3.58MB)
CSIRO Report - Climate change under enhanced greenhouse conditions in South Australia - 2006 (PDF 4.33MB)
Tackling Climate Change: South Australia's Greenhouse Strategy 2007-2020 (PDF 5.07MB)

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